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The information technology and communications and the digital economy that they are behind one of the engines of growth and development of modern societies. Impacts are critical not only in terms of industrial competitiveness and resource sharing but also in the fields of social cohesion, health, education and culture, transport and security, and more generally in development of the knowledge society and economy of the immaterial.

Contribution to public decision

Alain Bravo
Chairman of the Committee

In May 2008, the Secretary of State in charge of developing the digital economy has asked the Strategic Analysis Centre to reflect the Government intended to enlighten by presenting a strategic vision of the digital economy and told Mr Alain Bravo, member of the Academy of Technology and CEO of Supélec, the presidency of this mission. This report summarizes the various discussions conducted as part of the mission "Digital Economy".

The digital economy has undergone considerable development over the past ten years and should be confronted by equally important changes in the next ten. The Working Group did not give up to a reflection by 2025, considering that beyond the technological breakthroughs, social and societal that are sure to occur, a number of guidelines for long-term public policy could be identified. In a context as strong mutation, the government action must be reviewed regularly against by even just that depending on the outcome of the evaluation of measures implemented.

This foresight exercise was carried out following a methodology consisting classic at first to consider the digital economy as a system to break it down into a number of variables, namely 42, to analyze it, and in a second phase to consider possible scenarios for 2025. Finally, the exercise sought to identify avenues for action.

The party adopted throughout this analysis was to place the user, especially a company as well, in the heart of the system under consideration and reflection. The proposed recommendations must indeed be measured in terms of their possible influence on the great issues of our society that are medium-term climate change, the changing demographics and social ties, the competitiveness of our economy, and Of course, the much shorter term, the financial and economic crisis.

Beyond the use of the digital economy, the parameters considered critical and which correspond to the different variables of the system, major changes in technology are expected, regulatory issues and corporate governance, market trends, economic positioning of France and its businesses in these markets, and finally the overall context of society and economy.

Like any forecasting exercise, it did not attempt to show what would fall to a political ideal, unique, but rather to expose the operation of the digital economy and to provide a mapping of variables essential. The reader will find at the end of the page data set that helped carry out this exercise: the 42 cards with varying assumptions focusing on each one, and the intermediate scenarios built on some of them.

What is presented is not intended to constitute a fixed set: the approach deserves to be taken at regular intervals to take into account changes both the context and the digital economy, but also new weak signals appeared. The objective is to build a tool for decision sufficiently robust to be subjected to monitoring over time and to guide action.

Press Contact

Jean-Michel Roullé
Head of communications
jean-michel.roulle@strategie.gouv.fr
01 42 75 61 37

Contents

Synthesis

Axis 1 - Educate and train
Axis 2 - Acting on a European scale
Axis 3 - Innovate
Axis 4 - Strengthening Trust
Area 5 - Securing critical infrastructures, networks and information systems
Axis 6 - Deploy networks

Introduction

Chapter 1: Understanding the complexity of society and economy to the digital
one. Foresight to envision the digital economy by 2025
2. Scenarios of possible futures to identify levers for change
3. The digital economy as a whole Chapter 2: The six global scenarios 1. Scenario "Partitioning" (character trend scenario) 2. Scenario "wide web and omnipotent societal blocking" (regressive scenario) 3. Scenario "Digital Economy in the service of a green economy" 4. Scenario "Digital Economy in the service of social interactions and employment 5. Scenario "Digital Economy drives competitiveness" 6. Scenario "Renewal" Chapter 3: Perspectives and lessons for action 1. levers explain the passage of a global scenario to another 2. The lines of thought long term and short-term recommendations

Appendices

Appendix 1: Engagement Letter
Appendix 2: Composition of the Commission "Digital Economy"
Appendix 3: Components, plugs varaibles, meso-structuring scenarios and scenarios of the foresight exercise available on the website of the Center for Strategic Analysis
Appendix 4: Glossary
Appendix 5: Bibliography

Documents: Components, plugs variables, mésoscénarios scenarios and structuring the foresight exercise

1. Components and Variables

1.1. Component "Uses"
The uses of those
1.1.1. Variable " Learning, communicate, entertain and socialize "
1.1.2. Variable " Doing business, acquire "
1.1.3. Variable " Healing yourself "
1.1.4. Variable " Managing and protecting their identities and their property "
1.1.5. Variable " Mastering multi activities, space and time "
1.1.6. Variable " Take ownership of objects and tools " The uses of businesses and public and private organizations 1.1.7. Variable " Anticipate, identify risks and control responsibilities " 1.1.8. Variable " Create and innovate " 1.1.9. Variable ' Produce goods and services " 1.1.10. Variable " Prospect, optimize the management, sell and distribute " 1.1.11. Variable " Security and management of critical infrastructure "

1.2. Component "technologies critical to the future"
1.2.1. Variable " technology design and design "
1.2.2. Variable " Cognitive technologies "
1.2.3. Variable " technology security and control "
1.2.4. Variable " Integration Technologies for network systems and services "
1.2.5. Variable " Mobility / Ubiquity / Embedded Systems "
1.2.6. Variable " Technology for Energy "
1.2.7. Variable " system to system interfaces "
1.2.8. Variable " Nanotechnology / NBIC "

1.3. Component of "The Market"
1.3.1. Variable " potentially competitive sectors through ICT "
1.3.2. Variable " flow of world trade in digital goods and services - weight of emerging countries "
1.3.3. Variable " Taxation of trade in services digital "
1.3.4. Variable " ICT Sectors potentially competitive "
1.3.5. Variable " Economic Models "
1.3.6. Variable " New entrants, new markets "
1.3.7. Variable " Strategy of public powers "

1.4. Component "Regulation, Governance"
1.4.1. Variable " scope of universal service "
1.4.2. Variable "Standards, standards, interoperability of content including"
1.4.3. Variable " Security / trust in transactions / data management private "
1.4.4. Variable " Safety and liability of ICT "
1.4.5. Variable " Commercial law, competition law, the intangible right to "
1.4.6. Variable "ICT Resource Management"
1.4.7. Variable " governance: NBICs, virtual worlds: regulation, controls "
1.4.8. Variable " Democracy and new modes of political expression "

1.5. Component "The socio-economic (exogenous variables)"
1.5.1. Variable " Globalization of markets and international relations "
1.5.2. Variable " Dynamic European "
1.5.3. Variable " The rise in energy prices and energy balance of the digital economy "
1.5.4. Variable " Global warming and the environment: primary resources, waste "
1.5.5. Variable " Population aging and evolution of migration flows "
1.5.6. Variable " Dynamic roles individuals / communities / .. State . "
1.5.7. Variable " Human Resources "
1.5.8. Variable " Transformation "Schumpeterian" industries "

2. Mésoscénarios

2.1. " The use of those "
2.1 '. " The uses of businesses and public and private organizations "
2.2. " Technologies "
2.3. " The market "
2.4. " Regulation and governance "
2.5. " The socio-economic "

Three. Scenarios